[Computer-go] News on Tromp-Cook ?

[Stefan Kaitschick]

In your survey, the spread for a super-human program, from those that 
correctly predicted 2010 for shodan,
is from 2023 to 2150.
So even between the best predictors sofar, there was huge disagreement 
when it comes topling humanity ...
I guess current knowledge of the effectiveness and scalability of MCTS 
would narrow the spread, but how much?

Stefan


Am 01.01.2011 21:46, schrieb Darren Cook:
>> Despite his loss of the bet on the surface, I congratulate Darren for
>> almost correctly predicting the 19x19 computer strength development!
> Actually my own prediction in 1997 was hopelessly optimistic. Here is
> the 1997 list:
>    http://dcook.org/gobet/mail.19970901.txt
>
> As you can see congratulations should go to Shinichi Sei, Tristan
> Cazenave, David Fotland, Yung Jye Hunag, Jun Saito and Kobayashii, who
> all guessed 2010 for European shodan level (*). (The first four are
> computer go programmers.)
>
> And especially congratulations to John, who 13 years ago very cleverly
> guessed he'd still be strong enough in 2010, but maybe not in 2011...
>
> By the way, my page has been updated with results, and permanent store
> of the game records:
>     http://dcook.org/gobet/
>
> Of special interest to people on this list is the detailed log file for
> the fourth game is available for download: it shows the prime variation,
> winning percentage, alternative moves considered, number of playouts,
> etc. at every move. Published with David Fotland's permission.
>
> Darren
>
> *: Unless you disagree and think the programs are still 1-kyu. But I'm
> going by the aggregate of results, including the 3d and 4d rankings that
> Many Faces and Zen consistently hold on KGS.
> Also John can be described as a "strong" 2-dan.
>
>