[Computer-go] Could a 'doubling dice'** encourage early resignation by programs?

[Stefan Kaitschick]

>> The problem is that you can still play the game out until there is just one
>> or two moves left and then resign.    So for this work it has to be done at
>> some reasonable point in the game and who is to decide when that should be?
> No, you either concede immediately, or you continue to play for twice the price.
>
> I think it's a very reasonable system to abort games that are a clear
> win. But I'm not sure it's appropriate for computer programs that have
> no objection to playing out a clearly won game.
>
> Mark
>

In backgammon, the doubling dice are actually the main element of skill 
in the game.
That sounds crazy, because it has such a gambling feel to it, but its true.
Its because even a mediocre player can muddle his way through the roll 
of the dice, but only a strong player can judge well what his current 
chances are.
The basic idea is that you need a 25% chance to win to be able to accept 
the double.
Because at 25% the expected value of accepting((2 - 3*2)/4) is the same 
as of declining(-1).
That should be a warning for go though.
The best things happen there when one side has to "do something".
You wouldn't want to see a resignation when there is even a 1% chance of 
turning things around.

Stefan