[Computer-go] Could a 'doubling dice'** encourage early resignation by programs?

[Nick Wedd]

In message <4D42891E.8040503 at Hamburg.de>, Stefan Kaitschick 
<Stefan.Kaitschick at Hamburg.de> writes
>>> The problem is that you can still play the game out until there is just one
>>> or two moves left and then resign.    So for this work it has to be done at
>>> some reasonable point in the game and who is to decide when that should be?
>> No, you either concede immediately, or you continue to play for twice 
>>the price.
>>
>> I think it's a very reasonable system to abort games that are a clear
>> win. But I'm not sure it's appropriate for computer programs that have
>> no objection to playing out a clearly won game.
>>
>> Mark
>>
>
>In backgammon, the doubling dice are actually the main element of skill 
>in the game.

There is only one of it, so not "dice" plural.  Also, you never roll it, 
it is just a marker, so it is a cube, not a die.

>That sounds crazy, because it has such a gambling feel to it, but its true.
>Its because even a mediocre player can muddle his way through the roll 
>of the dice, but only a strong player can judge well what his current 
>chances are.
>The basic idea is that you need a 25% chance to win to be able to 
>accept the double.
>Because at 25% the expected value of accepting((2 - 3*2)/4) is the same 
>as of declining(-1).

This calculation is mistaken (you are forgetting that if he accepts the 
cube then he will have it and you won't).  The correct value, assuming 
that each move makes only a small difference to the winning chances, is 
80%.

Nick

>That should be a warning for go though.
>The best things happen there when one side has to "do something".
>You wouldn't want to see a resignation when there is even a 1% chance 
>of turning things around.
>
>Stefan
>_______________________________________________
>Computer-go mailing list
>Computer-go at dvandva.org
>http://dvandva.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/computer-go

-- 
Nick Wedd    nick at maproom.co.uk